Brush Fires A-Go-Go

One might think (and many in the Bush Administration probably do) that, given the United States spends as much on the military as the rest of the world combined, that it should be able to control the rest of the world combined.

However logical the proposition may or may not be, the reality is another story altogether:

• With Sunni insurgents and Shiite death squads roaming the cities, and with negotiations for a unity government perpetually breaking down, longtime Iraq observers are fearing the worst. In the words of Juan Cole, a Middle East expert who blogs frequently on the war, "Iraq is a vial of nitroglycerine that can be set off with one shake."

Some might dismiss Cole as a longtime Bush critic, but disillusion also is endemic within conservative circles; witness William F. Buckley, icon of the modern conservative movement. He contends that "the American objective in Iraq has failed" and that Bush must "submit to historical reality" and make "the acknowledgment of defeat".

• A new militant umbrella group, the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, has launched attacks on oil facilities that have cut national production by 20 percent. Nigeria, with an average output of 2.5 million barrels per day, is the fifth-largest supplier to the United States.

The group was also responsible for the recent kidnappings.

It is threatening more attacks unless the government embarks on extensive new development projects, releases two of the region's political leaders who are in prison on criminal charges and curbs Nigerian military presence in the delta.

• The two cars that exploded a week ago outside the inner perimeter of Abqaiq, an oil processing facility in Saudi Arabia that is the world's largest, could have caused more loss of life and economic devastation than the two planes that crashed into the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001.

Had the terrorists succeeded in penetrating the guarded facility and detonating their bombs inside, they might have turned the complex into an inferno, releasing toxic chemicals that could have killed and sickened thousands of locals and expatriates, including many Americans, who work and live nearby.

The damage to the world economy also would have been severe because the oil market today resembles a car without shock absorbers: The tiniest bump on the road could send consumers and prices bouncing off the ceiling.

That wasn't always the case. Once there was enough wiggle room in the oil market to deal with occasional supply disruptions.

• At a rural military base on the outskirts of Caracas, officers have started classes in unconventional warfare to repel an invasion that President Hugo Chávez has hinted that Washington is planning.

• Venezuela's oil minister, in blunt comments published in a Caracas newspaper, has warned Washington that it could steer oil exports away from the United States and toward other markets. The minister, Rafael Ramírez, said that Venezuela, which is the world's fifth-largest oil exporter and supplies more than 10 percent of U.S. oil imports, could act in the face of what he described as aggression by the Bush administration.

• Between bad press, accusations, governmental threats and investigation requests, Freeport-McMoRan has been feeling the heat in Indonesia of late. This month alone, investors were bruised with a 20% drop in share prices amid continuing protests and disturbances at the company’s flagship Grasberg mine and company offices. Is Indonesia becoming too hostile for foreign miners? [...]

Last Tuesday, Freeport was forced to suspend operations in Papua after 500 locals set up barricades on a road leading to the site. The desperately poor locals were demanding the right to illegally sift through and sell tiny amounts of gold and copper in the tailings river, according to Adkerson.

“The area they were doing this in is very dangerous; there have been mud slides and water events where people have drowned,” said Adkerson.

Police came in to sweep them out and there were more locals than expected. The people reacted by throwing stones and ultimately created a rudimentary roadblock that blocked access from the town site to the mill, Adkerson said.

• Protests against the administration of President General Pervez Musharraf and against the U.S. took off in Pakistan about a month ago in the guise of rallies denouncing caricatures of the Prophet Mohammed.

These protests have now reached the stronghold of al-Qaeda and the Taliban in Pakistan: the self-proclaimed "Islamic State of North Waziristan", a volatile tribal area on the border with Afghanistan.

For the past few days this region has been the scene of fierce battles between the Pakistani armed forces and the Taliban and their supporters. This, analysts believe, is the starting point of taking the nascent Tehrik-i-Nizam-i-Mustafa movement to other areas in Pakistan, that is, to enforce the Prophet Mohammed's way of life, or sharia law, on society. Underground Islamic radical groups will surface in support of this struggle that could ultimately lead to the ousting of the Musharraf government.

Just a few brief snapshots. Doesn't even include China's and Russia's slow-but-sure pulling out of Washington's orbit, nor the fallout from an attack upon Iran. Nor, of course, the likelihood of another disastrous hurricane season.

Posted by Eddie Tews at March 7, 2006 12:31 PM